Exploring the freight transportation transitions for mitigation and development pathways of India
Dipti Gupta, Subash Dhar
Abstract
Greenhouse gas emissions and PM2.5 pollution from vehicular exhausts and the consequent negative externalities underline the urgency of investigating low-carbon pathways for the freight sector. This paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis to determine the implications of a modal shift in the freight sector for the environment, energy systems and the economy. Stakeholder consultations are used to develop the qualitative narratives that are further used to set the parameters in energy-economy optimization models for deriving quantitative pathways. Our analysis includes four scenarios: Current Policy (CPS), Road Focused (FROAD), Rail Technology (TRAIL) and Harmonized Multimodal (HMML). The HMML scenario follows a balanced approach harmonizing the twin goals of reducing imported fuels and carbon emissions that can simultaneously assist in achieving development and decarbonization targets. Our results show that the HMML scenario based on the multimodal approach of creating a level playing field for all modes can reduce fossil fuel imports by 87.6% and CO2 emissions by 96%, relative to CPS in 2050. The HMML scenario also envisages significant macroeconomic benefits – the cost of logistics as a percentage of GDP falls to 11%, and there are cumulative foreign exchange savings of 3.8 trillion USD from 2016 to 2050. However, electrification, the leading technology for the respective decarbonizing modes, will need policies that enhance research and innovation on batteries and infrastructure investments for charging along national and state highways. The main policy insight from our analysis is that multimodal logistics policy needs to be designed in alignment with clean energy-based electrification policy and national rail plans so that uniform rules from the origin govern all modes to the destination of goods transport.