Interpretable Memristive LSTM Network Design for Probabilistic Residential Load Forecasting
Chaojie Li, Zhao Yang Dong, Lan Ding, Henry L. Petersen, Zihang Qiu, Guo Chen, Deo Prasad
Abstract
Memristive LSTM networks have been proven as a powerful Neuromorphic Computing Architecture (NCA) for various time series forecasting tasks and are recognized as the next generation of AI. However, a lack of model explainability makes it hard to properly interpret forecasting results for existing memristive LSTM networks, which makes this NCA unreliable, unaccountable and untrustworthy. In this paper, an interpretable memristive (IM) LSTM network design is proposed for time series forecasting, where the mixture attention technique is embedded into IM-LSTM cells for characterizing the variable-wise feature and the temporal importance. The updating rules and training approach are also presented for this interpretable memristive LSTM network. We evaluate this approach on a probabilistic residential load forecasting task incorporating PV. By improving model interpretability, the most influential predictive factors can be verified by Built Environment domain experts, demonstrating the effectiveness of our design.