Global future onshore wind energy droughts intensify under climate change
Christopher Jung, Dirk Schindler
Abstract
Onshore wind energy stands as an effective alternative to conventional energy sources, offering significant benefits in climate change mitigation. However, non-dispatchable wind energy is vulnerable to energy droughts, which can lead to soaring energy market prices and power system blackouts. Concerns are mounting that energy droughts will intensify under climate change. There is a notable lack of global-scale studies that examine onshore wind energy droughts in the context of climate change. Consequently, this study investigates the hypothesis that both the frequency and duration of onshore wind energy droughts will intensify with climate warming. Utilizing a global dataset of long-term capacity factor time series, this research uses both a historical period (1989–2014) and a future period (2025–2054) under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios for assessing wind energy drought properties in 80 countries. A drought severity classification reveals that, in the historical period, wind energy droughts are most pronounced in tropical regions. Nations with dominant temperate and/or continental climate and substantial installed wind capacity, such as China, the USA, and Germany, are particularly affected by intensifying wind energy droughts under climate change. A significant increase in both the number and duration of wind energy droughts occurs in 21 countries under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and in 37 countries under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. These results underline the urgent need for adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of wind energy droughts. Developing more resilient energy infrastructures and improved turbine efficiency will be crucial to addressing the challenges posed by wind energy droughts.