Advanced feature engineering in microgrid PV forecasting: A fast computing and data-driven hybrid modeling framework
Md. Ahasan Habib, M. J. Hossain
Abstract
This study introduces an innovative framework designed to forecast the fluctuating short-term generation of photovoltaic (PV) energy in isolated microgrids. The framework relies entirely on solar irradiance data obtained from weather stations located far from the target microgrid. It implements a sophisticated decomposition approach to effectively extract an enriched collection of features from the dataset. Subsequently, a machine learning-based clustering method further enhances the forecasting process by accurately separating the relevant data points. The approach utilizes an advanced two-stage Hybrid Data Linked Model (HDLM) architecture, integrating a Layered Recurrent Neural Framework (LRNF) for prediction and a pattern identification network unit for pattern extraction. This paper demonstrates significant improvements in both the accuracy and effectiveness of estimating PV generation, achieving a mean absolute error of 1.02, a root mean square error of 2.176, and an R-squared score of 0.991. Additionally, the method reduces computing time by 15% after finalizing the input features. A comparative analysis evaluates the superior forecasting capabilities of the HDLM in remote microgrids by benchmarking it against other advanced hybrid deep learning models. The findings highlight the HDLM’s potential to greatly enhance and revolutionize the management and operation of renewable energy systems in remote microgrids. • Forecast remote microgrid PV power with solar irradiance data and feature engineering. • Employed a tailored decomposition approach to unveil significant patterns. • Improved prediction by assigning features using machine learning-based clustering. • Advanced Hybrid Model’s feature extraction and prediction outperform other models.