Machine Learning Innovations in Renewable Energy Systems with Integrated NRBO-TXAD for Enhanced Wind Speed Forecasting Accuracy

Abstract

In the realm of renewable energy, harnessing wind power efficiently is crucial for establishing a low-carbon power system. However, the intermittent and uncertain nature of wind speed poses significant challenges for accurate prediction, which is essential for effective grid integration and dispatch management. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel hybrid model, NRBO-TXAD, which integrates a Newton–Raphson-based optimizer (NRBO) with a Transformer and XGBoost, further enhanced by adaptive denoising techniques. The interquartile range–adaptive moving average filter (IQR-AMAF) method is employed to preprocess the data by removing outliers and smoothing the data, thereby improving the quality of the input. The NRBO efficiently optimizes the hyperparameters of the Transformer, thereby enhancing its learning performance. Meanwhile, XGBoost is utilized to compensate for any residual prediction errors. The effectiveness of the proposed model was validated using two real-world wind speed datasets. Among eight models, including LSTM, Informer, and hybrid baselines, NRBO-TXAD demonstrated superior performance. Specifically, for Case 1, NRBO-TXAD achieved a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.24% and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.2551. For Case 2, the MAPE was 4.90%, and the RMSE was 0.2976. Under single-step forecasting, the MAPE for Case 2 was as low as 2.32%. Moreover, the model exhibited remarkable robustness across multiple time steps. These results confirm the model’s effectiveness in capturing wind speed fluctuations and long-range dependencies, making it a reliable solution for short-term wind forecasting. This research not only contributes to the field of signal analysis and machine learning but also highlights the potential of hybrid models in addressing complex prediction tasks within the context of artificial intelligence.

Topics & Concepts