Model with transmission delays for COVID‐19 control: Theory and empirical assessment
Natali Hritonenko, Olha Yatsenkо, Yuri Yatsenko
Abstract
The paper focuses on modeling of public health measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors suggest a flexible integral model with distributed lags, which realistically describes COVID-19 infectiousness period from clinical data. It contains susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR), susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR), and other epidemic models as special cases. The model is used for assessing how government decisions to lockdown and reopen the economy affect epidemic spread. The authors demonstrate essential differences in transition and asymptotic dynamics of the integral model and the SIR model after lockdown. The provided simulation on real data accurately describes several waves of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States and is in good correspondence with government actions to curb the epidemic.