Review of Methods and Models for Forecasting Electricity Consumption

Abstract

This article presents a comprehensive review of methods used for forecasting electricity consumption. The studies analyzed by the authors encompass both classical statistical models and modern approaches based on artificial intelligence, including machine-learning and deep-learning techniques. Electricity load forecasting is categorized into four time horizons: very short term, short term, medium term, and long term. The authors conducted a comparative analysis of various models, such as autoregressive models, neural networks, fuzzy logic systems, hybrid models, and evolutionary algorithms. Particular attention was paid to the effectiveness of these methods in the context of variable input data, such as weather conditions, seasonal fluctuations, and changes in energy consumption patterns. The article emphasizes the growing importance of accurate forecasts in the context of the energy transition, integration of renewable energy sources, and the management of the evolving electricity system, shaped by decentralization, renewable integration, and data-intensive forecasting demands. In conclusion, the authors highlight the lack of a universal forecasting approach and the need for further research on hybrid models that combine interpretability with high predictive accuracy. This review can serve as a valuable resource for decision-makers, grid operators, and researchers involved in energy system planning.

Topics & Concepts