Risk Analysis Index and Its Recalibrated Version Predict Postoperative Outcomes Better Than 5-Factor Modified Frailty Index in Traumatic Spinal Injury
Matthew Conlon, Rachel Thommen, Syed Faraz Kazim, Alis J. Dicpinigaitis, Meic H. Schmidt, Rohini G. McKee, Christian A. Bowers
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To assess the discriminative ability of the Risk Analysis Index-administrative (RAI-A) and its recalibrated version (RAI-Rev), compared to the 5-factor modified frailty index (mFI-5), in predicting postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing surgical intervention for traumatic spine injuries (TSIs). METHODS: The Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) and International Classification of Disease-9 (ICD-9) and ICD-10 codes were used to identify patients ≥ 18 years who underwent surgical intervention for TSI from National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database 2015-2019 (n = 6,571). Multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were conducted to evaluate the comparative discriminative ability of RAI-Rev, RAI-A, and mFI-5 for 30-day postoperative outcomes. RESULTS: Multivariate regression analysis showed that with all 3 frailty scores, increasing frailty tiers resulted in worse postoperative outcomes, and patients identified as frail and severely frail using RAI-Rev and RAI-A had the highest odds of poor outcomes. In the ROC curve/C-statistics analysis for prediction of 30-day mortality and morbidity, both RAI-Rev and RAI-A outperformed mFI-5, and for many outcomes, RAI-Rev showed better discriminative performance compared to RAI-A, including mortality (p = 0.0043, DeLong test), extended length of stay (p = 0.0042), readmission (p < 0.0001), reoperation (p = 0.0175), and nonhome discharge (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Both RAI-Rev and RAI-A performed better than mFI-5, and RAI-Rev was superior to RAI-A in predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity in TSI patients. RAI-based frailty indices can be used in preoperative risk assessment of spinal trauma patients.