Analyzing the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies Using the Time-Dependent Reproduction Number and the Regression Discontinuity Framework: Comparison between Countries
Shangjun Liu, T. Ermolieva, Guiying Cao, Chen Gong, Xiaoying Zheng
Abstract
This study compares the effectiveness of COVID-19 control policies on the virus’s spread and on the change of the infection dynamics in China, Germany, Austria, and the USA relying on a regression discontinuity in time and ‘earlyR’ epidemic models. The effectiveness of policies is measured by real-time reproduction number and cases counts. Comparison between the two lockdowns within each country showed the importance of people's risk perception for the effectiveness of the measures. Results suggest that restrictions applied for a long period or reintroduced later may cause at-tenuated effect on the circulation of the virus and the number of casualties.
Topics & Concepts
Regression discontinuity designCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)ChinaRegressionReproductionSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Discontinuity (linguistics)Regression analysis2019-20 coronavirus outbreakBasic reproduction numberDemographyEconometricsComputer scienceStatisticsGeographyDemographic economicsEconomicsBiologyMathematicsMedicineEcologyOutbreakVirologySociologyMathematical analysisPathologyPopulationInfectious disease (medical specialty)ArchaeologyDiseaseCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsCOVID-19 impact on air quality