Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
Doug Smith, Rosie Eade, Martin B. Andrews, Holly Ayres, Adam J. Clark, Svenya Chripko, Clara Deser, Nick Dunstone, Javier García‐Serrano, Guillaume Gastineau, Lise Seland Graff, Steven C. Hardiman, Bian He, Leon Hermanson, Thomas Jung, Jeff Knight, Xavier J. Levine, Guðrún Magnúsdóttir, Elisa Manzini, Daniela Matei, Masato Mori, Rym Msadek, Pablo Ortega, Yannick Peings, Adam A. Scaife, James A. Screen, Melissa Seabrook, Tido Semmler, Michael Sigmond, Jan Streffing, Lantao Sun, Amber Walsh
Abstract
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.