A Design of Hybrid Model and Bayesian Neural Networks for Smart Grid Stability Prediction
Shreyas Rajendra Hole, Vinothkumar Kolluru, Shreekant Salotagi, Yagnesh Challagundla, Sudeep Mungara, R. Sriramkumar
Abstract
The latest evolution in power systems, is ‘smart grids'that offers real time monitoring, control features as well as effective management of renewable energy sources. Nonetheless, with the increase in the system complexity, the chances for insta- bility also increase and thus it is crucial to forecast the stability accurately for the safety of the grid. Weather it is in terms of Gradient Boosting Tree Algorithm or any other traditional algorithm, these machine learning models are successful in achieving the objectives of the task but they lack a forthcoming metric to assist in high stake situations, uncertainty quantification. The paper is devoted to the analysis of the reliability of smart grid systems based on Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) taking into account both the reliability of predictive modeling and forecasting uncertainty. The smart grid stability augmented dataset was used to benchmark the efficacy of using BNNs or BNNs combined hybrid models, one with XGBoost, for feature extraction and the other with LightGBM. The present study shows that the BNN used with the above mentioned smart grid system achieved an accuracy of 92% with precision of 0.89, recall of 0.91 and F1 of 0.90. These metrics are appending with the help of the additional features of BNN where they are capable of addressing the key questions around uncertainty and thus the metrics confirming the predictions are quite strong in terms of real-time grid stability evaluation. This article encapsulates a detailed study of BNN architecture, the role of uncertainty in machine learning models and the natural application of such models in the design of dependable and fault-tolerant smart grids.