Psychosocial and Physiological Factors Affecting Selection to Regional Age-Grade Rugby Union Squads: A Machine Learning Approach
Julian Owen, Robin Owen, J. G. Hughes, Josh Leach, Dior Anderson, Eleri Sian Jones
Abstract
Talent selection programmes choose athletes for talent development pathways. Currently, the set of psychosocial variables that determine talent selection in youth Rugby Union are unknown, with the literature almost exclusively focusing on physiological variables. The purpose of this study was to use a novel machine learning approach to identify the physiological and psychosocial models that predict selection to a regional age-grade rugby union team. Age-grade club rugby players (n = 104; age, 15.47 ± 0.80; U16, n = 62; U18, n = 42) were assessed for physiological and psychosocial factors during regional talent selection days. Predictive models (selected vs. non-selected) were created for forwards, backs, and across all players using Bayesian machine learning. The generated physiological models correctly classified 67.55% of all players, 70.09% of forwards, and 62.50% of backs. Greater hand-grip strength, faster 10 m and 40 m sprint, and power were common features for selection. The generated psychosocial models correctly classified 62.26% of all players, 73.66% of forwards, and 60.42% of backs. Reduced burnout, reduced emotional exhaustion, and lower reduced sense of accomplishment, were common features for selection. Selection appears to be predominantly based on greater strength, speed, and power, as well as lower athlete burnout.