Analyzing trade-offs, synergies, and driving factors of ecosystem services in Anhui Province using spatial analysis and XG-boost modeling
Jianshen Qu, Zhili Xu, Bin Dong, Hao Wang, Yuexia Han
Abstract
As a key component of China’s Yangtze River Delta region, Anhui Province occupies a significant strategic position due to its unique geographical location and abundant resources. However, research on ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs and synergies in this region remains limited, especially considering its complex socio-environmental characteristics. This study employs the InVEST model to quantify four key ESs—habitat quality, water yield, soil retention, and carbon storage—while exploring their spatial and temporal dynamics from 2002 to 2022 using the Theil-Sen and Mann-Kendall (Sen + M−K) model. A conceptual framework was developed to assess comprehensive ESs trade-offs and synergies, and the XGBoost model combined with SHAP analysis quantified the impacts of 10 environmental and socioeconomic factors. GeoDA model was utilized to perform a spatial clustering analysis of the 4 ESs at multiple scales, while spatially constrained K-means (SCK-means) model was applied to classify Anhui Province into 5 ES clusters. The results of this study are outlined as follows:(1) Habitat quality declined by 7.5 %, water yield decreased by 3.533 million m3, soil retention increased by 8 million tons, and carbon storage increased by 6.5 million tons, with notable spatial heterogeneity; (2) Trade-offs and synergies were identified in 63.3 % of the province’s area, with positive synergies across 25.6 %, negative synergies in 19.9 %, and trade-offs in 17.8 %; (3) Precipitation, evapotranspiration, and elevation positively influenced ESs, while sunshine duration and population density had negative impacts; (4) Multi-scale analysis revealed strengthened correlations among ESs at broader scales and greater differentiation at finer scales; (5) Water conservation zones declined from 28.3 % to 12.8 %, while ecological degradation zones expanded from 37.7 % to 52.3 %. This study underscores the complexity of ES interactions in Anhui Province and provides critical insights for territorial management and ecological conservation strategies.