A Survey of Machine Learning Methods for Time Series Prediction

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive survey of the top-performing research papers in the field of time series prediction, offering insights into the most effective machine learning techniques, including tree-based, deep learning, and hybrid methods. It explores key factors influencing the model performance, such as the type of time series task, dataset size, and the time interval of historical data. Additionally, this study investigates potential biases in model development and weighs the trade-offs between the computational costs and performance. A detailed analysis of the most used error metrics and hyperparameter tuning methods in the reviewed papers is included. Furthermore, this study evaluates the results from prominent forecasting competitions, such as M5 and M6, to enrich the analysis. The findings of this paper highlight that tree-based methods like LightGBM 4.6.0 and deep learning methods like recurrent neural networks deliver the best performance in time series forecasting, with tree-based methods offering a significant advantage in terms of their computational efficiency. This paper concludes with practical recommendations for approaching time series forecasting tasks, offering valuable insights and actionable strategies that can enhance the accuracy and reliability of predictions derived from time series data.

Topics & Concepts