Looking to the Future: Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies
Alessandro Marson, Alberto Benozzi, Alessandro Manzardo
Abstract
Emerging technologies are expected to contribute to sustainable development, but assessing their future environmental impacts compared to current technologies remains challenging. Prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) provides a systematic approach to evaluating emerging technologies throughout their life cycle and projecting impacts at future industrial scales. This review aims to identify critical aspects of pLCA methodologies and examine their implementation in recent case studies. Key aspects are highlighted: assessment of initial technology maturity, upscaling methods to model data at higher technology readiness levels, and development of future scenarios to contextualize the scaled-up systems. Specific upscaling techniques such as process simulation, engineering calculations and technology learning curves are discussed. Approaches to generating future scenarios in line with integrated assessment models and common socio-economic pathways are also analyzed. An in-depth literature review covering 2021-2024 publications categorizes 79 articles into literature reviews, methodological papers and pLCA case studies. The identified critical issues serve as a benchmark to assess the completeness and robustness of 20 case studies. Notable contributions, limitations and the need for comprehensive guidelines that integrate scenario development with upscaling methods are highlighted. This review provides valuable insights for researchers conducting pLCA studies of emerging technologies and materials.