Projection of Private Vehicle Stock in India up to 2050
Namita Singh, Trupti Mishra, Rangan Banerjee
Abstract
The study presents future projections of private vehicle stock in India up to 2050. Private vehicles include motorized two-wheelers and cars which mainly run on petrol and diesel in India. The growth in private automobiles is directly related to the economic development of the country. In the present study, vehicle ownership per 1000 people is projected with per capita GDP using Gompertz function. The result gives future values of two-wheelers and cars based on GDP growth rates and saturation levels for vehicle ownership per 1000 people assumed for India. Our study projects that the total two-wheeler population increases by approximately 3-fold (420 million) and 4-fold (562 million) in conservative and aggressive growth scenarios, respectively, in the year 2050. Similarly, for cars, the total vehicle population increases by approximately 9-fold (262 million) and 14-fold (432 million) in conservative and aggressive growth scenarios, respectively, in the year 2050. The point of inflection starts after 2030 for private vehicles in India. The result also indicates that India is at the initial stage of the Gompertz curve and follows an ‘S’ shaped growth pattern like developed countries. The study also suggests a few suitable policy recommendations for a reduction in vehicle population, which will eventually affect vehicular emissions and oil dependency.