Drivers of epidemic dynamics in real time from daily digital COVID-19 measurements
Michelle Kendall, Luca Ferretti, Chris Wymant, Daphne Tsallis, James Petrie, Andrea Di Francia, Francesco Di Lauro, Lucie Abeler‐Dörner, Harrison Manley, Jasmina Panovska‐Griffiths, Alice Ledda, Xavier Didelot, Christophe Fraser
Abstract
Understanding the drivers of respiratory pathogen spread is challenging, particularly in a timely manner during an ongoing epidemic. In this work, we present insights that we obtained using daily data from the National Health Service COVID-19 app for England and Wales and that we shared with health authorities in almost real time. Our indicator of the reproduction number R ( t ) was available days earlier than other estimates, with an innovative capability to decompose R ( t ) into contact rates and probabilities of infection. When Omicron arrived, the main epidemic driver switched from contacts to transmissibility. We separated contacts and transmissions by day of exposure and setting and found pronounced variability over days of the week and during Christmas holidays and events. For example, during the Euro football tournament in 2021, days with England matches showed sharp spikes in exposures and transmissibility. Digital contact-tracing technologies can help control epidemics not only by directly preventing transmissions but also by enabling rapid analysis at scale and with unprecedented resolution.