Load forecasting method based on CNN and extended LSTM

Abstract

With the continuous development of power systems and the growing demand, accurate power load prediction has become essential to ensure stable system operation and optimize energy allocation. The collection and analysis of historical load data have become increasingly important, and the factors affecting load changes have grown more complex. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a short-term load prediction method based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) and multilayer extended long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. The method first extracts local features from historical data using 1D convolution operations in the CNN. Then, a multilayer extended LSTM network captures long-term dependencies in the data from multiple dimensions for more accurate load prediction. The prediction experiments use real load and related factor data from a city in eastern Mongolia. Results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other deep learning-based load prediction methods in direct single-step, four-step, and 32-step load predictions in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MAE indexes. Additionally, the proposed model can be extended to more prediction application scenarios, including intelligent transportation and financial analysis. • Proposes a short-term load forecasting method combining CNN and extended LSTM networks. • CNN extracts local features, while extended LSTM captures long-term dependencies. • Outperforms other methods in single-step, four-step, and thirty-two-step load forecasting. • Demonstrates high performance and robustness in predicting loads of various step sizes.

Topics & Concepts