Elevation dependency of future degradation of permafrost over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Guofei Zhang, Cuicui Mu, Zhuotong Nan, Xiaodong Wu, Guodong Cheng
Abstract
Abstract Global warming has caused widespread permafrost degradation, but the geographic regularity of permafrost degradation is unknown. Here, we investigated the three-dimensional features of future permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our findings show that permafrost degradation under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) has obvious three-dimensional characteristics. In comparison to latitude and aridity, permafrost degradation is closely related to elevation, i.e. it slows with elevation, a phenomenon known as elevation-dependent degradation. The pattern of elevation-dependent degradation is consistent across four subzones and is strongly linked to thermal conditions that vary with elevation. Under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, remarkable elevation-dependent warming (EDW) is observed at 3600–4900 m, but changes in mean annual ground temperature of permafrost and EDW as altitude rises are anti-phase. Under any SSP, the magnitude of mean annual air temperature along altitude belts determines the degree of permafrost degradation ( R 2 > 0.90). This research provides new insight on the evolution of permafrost.