Streamflow response to land use/land cover change in the tropical Andes using multiple SWAT model variants

Abstract

Tropical watershed in the Colombian Andes, the Chico River (CR) watershed. Hydrological models are widely used to project the impacts of LULC (Land Use/Land Cover) change on water budget. However, their ability to produce reliable predictions depends on how accurately they represent the role of vegetation in the watershed’s water balance. We analyze how different representations of Leaf Area Index (LAI) affect streamflow responses to LULC change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We also examine streamflow response to 100 % pasture cover (PAS), 100 % forest cover (FOR), and a control scenario using the original SWAT model, SWAT-T, and a proposed new variant (SWAT-Tb), which improves LAI bimodal representation for tropical regions. SWAT-T and SWAT-Tb reproduce observed LAI and streamflow in the CR watershed. However, SWAT-T restricts LAI simulation to unimodal seasonality, while the original SWAT reproduces streamflow but not LAI seasonality. Results using SWAT-T (unimodal LAI) and SWAT-Tb (constant and bimodal LAI) show streamflow increases during the dry seasons for the FOR scenario and decreases for the PAS scenario. Conversely, the original SWAT, with its default LAI representation, tends to underestimate and overestimate streamflow changes in the FOR and PAS scenarios, respectively. Our results highlight that an unrealistic LAI representation can mislead LULC change impact assessments on streamflow in the tropical Andes. • A new SWAT model variant (SWAT-Tb) is proposed for the tropics. • SWAT-Tb can simulate constant and bimodal Leaf Area Index (LAI). • SWAT-Tb reproduces observed LAI and streamflow, original SWAT only streamflow. • In SWAT-T and SWAT-Tb, dry seasons streamflow increases as forest cover increases. • Original SWAT can mislead the streamflow response to LULC change in the tropics.

Topics & Concepts