Aging of HIV epidemic in India: Insights from HIV estimation modeling under the national aids control programme
Pradeep Kumar, Damodar Sahu, Nalini Chandra, Arvind Kumar, Shobini Rajan
Abstract
People living with HIV are gradually getting older as a result of better survival with increased uptake of antiretroviral treatment in India. We aimed to quantify the aging HIV-infected population in India by undertaking a mathematical model analysis of 2017 rounds of HIV burden estimations under the National AIDS Control Programme. Our analysis projects that the mean age of HIV-infected people will increase from 38.4 years in 2005 to 45.5 years in 2025 with the proportion of HIV-infected people aged 50 years or older increasing from 19% in 2005 to 37% in 2025. This aging HIV epidemic is anticipated to lead to more non-AIDS morbidities, increased treatment complexity, and an inevitable need for multidisciplinary health-care services to ensure continued high-quality survival.