Penetrance of Colorectal Cancer Among Mismatch Repair Gene Mutation Carriers: A Meta-Analysis
Cathy Wang, Yan Wang, Kevin S. Hughes, Giovanni Parmigiani, Danielle Braun
Abstract
Abstract Background Lynch syndrome, the most common colorectal cancer (CRC) syndrome, is caused by germline mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Precise estimates of age-specific risks are crucial for sound counseling of individuals managing a genetic predisposition to cancer, but published risk estimates vary. The objective of this work is to provide gene-, sex-, and age-specific risk estimates of CRC for MMR mutation carriers that comprehensively reflect the best available data. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis to combine risk information from multiple studies on Lynch syndrome–associated CRC. We used a likelihood-based approach to integrate reported measures of CRC risk and deconvolved aggregated information to estimate gene- and sex-specific risk. Results Our comprehensive search identified 10 studies (8 on MLH1, 9 on MSH2, and 3 on MSH6). We estimated the cumulative risk of CRC by age and sex in heterozygous mutation carriers. At age 70 years, for male and female carriers, respectively, risks for MLH1 were 43.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 39.6% to 46.6%) and 37.3% (95% CI = 32.2% to 40.2%), for MSH2 were 53.9% (95% CI = 49.0% to 56.3%) and 38.6% (95% CI = 34.1% to 42.0%), and for MSH6 were 12.0% (95% CI = 2.4% to 24.6%) and 12.3% (95% CI = 3.5% to 23.2%). Conclusions Our results provide up-to-date and comprehensive age-specific CRC risk estimates for counseling and risk prediction tools. These will have a direct clinical impact by improving prevention and management strategies for both individuals who are MMR mutation carriers and those considering testing.