A simple model for COVID-19
Julien Arino, Stéphanie Portet
Abstract
epidemic model is formulated that describes the spread of an epidemic in a population. The model incorporates an Erlang distribution of times of sojourn in incubating, symptomatically and asymptomatically infectious compartments. Basic properties of the model are explored, with focus on properties important in the context of current COVID-19 pandemic.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Erlang distributionPandemicSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakEpidemic modelErlang (programming language)PopulationContext (archaeology)Computer scienceSimple (philosophy)GeographyMathematicsStatisticsVirologyMedicineGamma distributionInfectious disease (medical specialty)OutbreakEnvironmental healthTheoretical computer sciencePhilosophyDiseaseArchaeologyEpistemologyFunctional programmingPathologyCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchInfluenza Virus Research Studies