<i>In silico</i> predictions of the human pharmacokinetics/toxicokinetics of 65 chemicals from various classes using conformal prediction methodology
Urban Fagerholm, Sven Hellberg, Jonathan Alvarsson, Ola Spjuth
Abstract
Pharmacokinetic/toxicokinetic (PK/TK) information for chemicals in humans is generally lacking. Here we applied machine learning, conformal prediction and a new physiologically-based PK/TK model for prediction of the human PK/TK of 65 chemicals from different classes, including carcinogens, food constituents and preservatives, vitamins, sweeteners, dyes and colours, pesticides, alternative medicines, flame retardants, psychoactive drugs, dioxins, poisons, UV-absorbents, surfactants, solvents and cosmetics.About 80% of the main human PK/TK (fraction absorbed, oral bioavailability, half-life, unbound fraction in plasma, clearance, volume of distribution, fraction excreted) for the selected chemicals was missing in the literature. This information was now added (from in silico predictions). Median and mean prediction errors for these parameters were 1.3- to 2.7-fold and 1.4- to 4.8-fold, respectively. In total, 59 and 86% of predictions had errors <2- and <5-fold, respectively. Predicted and observed PK/TK for the chemicals was generally within the range for pharmaceutical drugs.The results validated the new integrated system for prediction of the human PK/TK for different chemicals and added important missing information. No general difference in PK/TK-characteristics was found between the selected chemicals and pharmaceutical drugs.