Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks
Bethan J. Davies, Robert McNabb, Jacob Bendle, Jonathan L. Carrivick, Jeremy C. Ely, Tom Holt, Bradley Markle, Christopher McNeil, Lindsey Nicholson, Mauri Pelto
Abstract
Abstract Globally, glaciers and icefields contribute significantly to sea level rise. Here we show that ice loss from Juneau Icefield, a plateau icefield in Alaska, accelerated after 2005 AD. Rates of area shrinkage were 5 times faster from 2015–2019 than from 1979–1990. Glacier volume loss remained fairly consistent (0.65–1.01 km 3 a −1 ) from 1770–1979 AD, rising to 3.08–3.72 km 3 a −1 from 1979–2010, and then doubling after 2010 AD, reaching 5.91 ± 0.80 km 3 a −1 (2010–2020). Thinning has become pervasive across the icefield plateau since 2005, accompanied by glacier recession and fragmentation. Rising equilibrium line altitudes and increasing ablation across the plateau has driven a series of hypsometrically controlled melt-accelerating feedbacks and resulted in the observed acceleration in mass loss. As glacier thinning on the plateau continues, a mass balance-elevation feedback is likely to inhibit future glacier regrowth, potentially pushing glaciers beyond a dynamic tipping point.