A Predictive Approach for Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction in University Campuses
Alberto Rey-Hernández, Julio Francisco San José Alonso, Ana Picallo-Pérez, Francisco Javier Rey Martı́nez, Ahmed Omar Elgharib, Javier M. Rey-Hernández, Khaled M. Salem
Abstract
This study proposes a comprehensive artificial intelligence (AI)-based framework to predict, disaggregate, and optimize energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions across a multi-building university campus. Leveraging real-world data from 27 buildings at the University of Valladolid (Spain), six AI models—artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), autoencoders, random forest (RF), XGBoost, and decision trees—were trained on heat exchanger performance metrics and contextual building parameters. The models were validated using an extensive set of key performance indicators (MAPE, RMSE, R2, KGE, NSE) to ensure both predictive accuracy and generalizability. The ANN, RBF, and autoencoder models exhibited the highest correlation with actual data (R > 0.99) and lowest error rates, indicating strong suitability for operational deployment. A detailed analysis at building level revealed heterogeneity in energy demand patterns and model sensitivities, emphasizing the need for tailored forecasting approaches. Forecasts for a 5-year horizon further demonstrated that, without intervention, energy consumption and CO2 emissions are projected to increase significantly, underscoring the relevance of predictive control strategies. This research establishes a robust and scalable methodology for campus-wide energy planning and offers a data-driven pathway for CO2 mitigation aligned with European climate targets.