The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant
David Hodgson, Stefan Flasche, Mark Jit, Adam J. Kucharski, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
Abstract
We assess the feasibility of reaching the herd immunity threshold against SARS-CoV-2 through vaccination, considering vaccine effectiveness (VE), transmissibility of the virus and the level of pre-existing immunity in populations, as well as their age structure. If highly transmissible variants of concern become dominant in areas with low levels of naturally-acquired immunity and/or in populations with large proportions of < 15 year-olds, control of infection without non-pharmaceutical interventions may only be possible with a VE ≥ 80%, and coverage extended to children.
Topics & Concepts
Herd immunityVaccinationSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)VirologyImmunityCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakMedicineCoronavirus InfectionsBetacoronavirusImmunologyImmune systemOutbreakInternal medicineDiseaseInfectious disease (medical specialty)SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesAnimal Virus Infections Studies