COVID-19 Age-Mortality Curves are Flatter in Developing Countries

Abstract

A greater share of reported COVID-19
\n deaths occur at younger ages in low- and middle-income
\n countries (LMICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs).
\n Based on data from 26 countries, people age 70 and older
\n constitute 37 percent of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in
\n LMICs on average, versus 87 percent in HICs. Only part of
\n this difference is accounted for by differences in
\n population age structure. In this paper, COVID-19 mortality
\n rates are calculated for each age group by dividing the
\n number of COVID-19 deaths by the underlying population. The
\n resulting age-mortality curves are flatter in countries with
\n lower incomes. In HICs, the COVID-19 mortality rate for
\n those ages 70-79 is 12.6 times the rate for those ages
\n 50-59. In LMICs, that ratio is just 3.5. With each year of
\n age, the age-specific mortality rate increases by an average
\n of 12.6 percent in HICs versus 7.1 percent in LMICs. This
\n pattern holds overall and separately for men's and
\n women's mortality rates. It reflects some combination
\n of variation across countries in age patterns of infection
\n rates, fatality rates among those infected, and
\n under-attribution of deaths to COVID-19. The findings
\n highlight that experiences with COVID-19 in wealthy
\n countries may not be generalizable to developing countries.

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