Incidence and Risk Factors of Future Need for Long-Term Care Insurance in Japanese Elderly Patients With Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction
Shinya Fujiki, Takeshi Kashimura, Yuji Okura, Kunio Kodera, Hiroshi Watanabe, Komei Tanaka, Shogo Bannai, Taturo Hatano, Takahiro Tanaka, Nobutaka Kitamura, Tohru Minamino, Takayuki Inomata
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Heart failure in elderly people causes physical and cognitive dysfunction and often requires long-term care insurance (LTCI); however, among patients with left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction, the incidence and risk factors of future LTCI requirements need to be elucidated. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 1,852 patients aged ≥65 years with an echocardiographic LV ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤50%; we referred to their LTCI data and those of 113,038 community-dwelling elderly people. During a mean 1.7-year period, 332 patients newly required LTCI (incidence 10.7 per 100 person-years); the incidence was significantly higher than that for the community-dwelling people (hazard ratio [HR], 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-1.64). On multivariate analysis, the risk factors at the time of echocardiography leading to future LTCI requirement were atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.588; 95% CI, 1.279-1.971), history of stroke (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.583-2.576), osteoporosis (HR, 1.738; 95% CI, 1.253-2.41), dementia (HR, 2.804; 95% CI, 2.075-3.789), hypnotics (HR, 1.461; 95% CI, 1.148-1.859), and diuretics (HR, 1.417; 95% CI, 1.132-1.773); however, the LVEF was not a risk factor (HR, 0.997; 95% CI, 0.983-1.011). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients with LV systolic dysfunction, the incidence of LTCI requirement was more common than that for community-dwelling people; its risk factors did not include LVEF, but included many other non-cardiac comorbidities and therapies, suggesting the need for interdisciplinary cooperation to prevent disabilities.