Uncertainty quantification and optimization method applied to time-continuous geothermal energy extraction
Hussein Hoteit, Xupeng He, Bicheng Yan, Volker Vahrenkamp
Abstract
Uncertainties in static and dynamic subsurface parameters are involved in geothermal field modeling. The quantification of such uncertainties is important to guide field-development alternatives and decision-making. This work presents a novel method for estimating thermal recovery and produced-enthalpy rates, combined with uncertainty quantification and optimization. We use time-continuous, multi-objective uncertainty quantification for geothermal recovery by water re-injection. The uncertainty ranges were determined using a database of 135 geothermal fields. Thermal recovery and produced-enthalpy rates are then evaluated as functions of dimensionless uncertainty parameters. Using the proposed method, a set of 25 geothermal fields are analyzed to determine optimal well spacing. This method quantifies time-continuous uncertainty and global sensitivity for geothermal field modeling undergoing re-injection when detailed subsurface data are not available.