A machine-learning based objective measure for ALS disease severity
Fernando G. Vieira, Subhashini Venugopalan, Alan Premasiri, Maeve McNally, Aren Jansen, Kevin McCloskey, Michael P. Brenner, Steven Perrin
Abstract
Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) disease severity is usually measured using the subjective, questionnaire-based revised ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R). Objective measures of disease severity would be powerful tools for evaluating real-world drug effectiveness, efficacy in clinical trials, and for identifying participants for cohort studies. We developed a machine learning (ML) based objective measure for ALS disease severity based on voice samples and accelerometer measurements from a four-year longitudinal dataset. 584 people living with ALS consented and carried out prescribed speaking and limb-based tasks. 542 participants contributed 5814 voice recordings, and 350 contributed 13,009 accelerometer samples, while simultaneously measuring ALSFRS-R scores. Using these data, we trained ML models to predict bulbar-related and limb-related ALSFRS-R scores. On the test set (n = 109 participants) the voice models achieved a multiclass AUC of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.85-0.88) on speech ALSFRS-R prediction, whereas the accelerometer models achieved a median multiclass AUC of 0.73 on 6 limb-related functions. The correlations across functions observed in self-reported ALSFRS-R scores were preserved in ML-derived scores. We used these models and self-reported ALSFRS-R scores to evaluate the real-world effects of edaravone, a drug approved for use in ALS. In the cohort of 54 test participants who received edaravone as part of their usual care, the ML-derived scores were consistent with the self-reported ALSFRS-R scores. At the individual level, the continuous ML-derived score can capture gradual changes that are absent in the integer ALSFRS-R scores. This demonstrates the value of these tools for assessing disease severity and, potentially, drug effects.