Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
Rosanna C. Barnard, Nicholas G. Davies, James D Munday, Rachel Lowe, Gwenan M. Knight, Quentin J. Leclerc, Damien C. Tully, David Hodgson, Rachael Pung, Joel Hellewell, Mihály Koltai, David Simons, Kaja Abbas, Adam J. Kucharski, Simon R. Procter, Frank Sandmann, Carl A. B. Pearson, Kiesha Prem, Alicia Showering, Sophie Meakin, Kathleen O’Reilly, Ciara V. McCarthy, Matthew Quaife, Kerry LM Wong, Yalda Jafari, Arminder Deol, Rein M G J Houben, Charlie Diamond, Thibaut Jombart, Christian Julián Villabona‐Arenas, William Waites, Rosalind M. Eggo, Akira Endo, Hamish Gibbs, Petra Klepac, Jack Williams, Billy J. Quilty, Oliver J. Brady, Jon C. Emery, Katherine E. Atkins, Lloyd A. C. Chapman, Katharine Sherratt, Sam Abbott, Nikos I Bosse, Paul Mee, Sebastian Funk, Jiayao Lei, Yang Liu, Stefan Flasche, James W. Rudge, Fiona Yueqian Sun, Graham F. Medley, Timothy Russell, Amy Gimma, Stéphane Hué, Christopher I Jarvis, Emilie Finch, Samuel Clifford, Mark Jit, W. John Edmunds
Abstract
England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.