Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score
COVIDSurg Collaborative, I Dajti, José Ignacio Valenzuela, L Boccalatte, Nicolas A Gemelli, Dantwan Smith, Nagendra N. Dudi‐Venkata, Hidde M. Kroon, Tarik Sammour, M Roberts, D Mitchell, K Lah, A Pearce, Dion Morton, Amanda Dawson, A Drane, Claire Sharpin, Ramesh Nataraja, Maurizio Pacilli, Daniel Cox, Vijayaragavan Muralidharan, Georgina Riddiough, Edmund Clarke, Wael Jamel, Kirby R. Qin, Peter Pockney, Daron Cope, N Egoroff, Natalie Lott, S Putnis, S De Robles, Zen Yang Ang, Martin Mitteregger, Stefan Uranitsch, Marjorie Stiegler, Gerald Seitinger, Felix Aigner, D B Lumenta, Sebastian P. Nischwitz, Erika Richtig, Mauro Pau, Petra Srekl-Filzmaier, Nicolas Eibinger, Birgit Michelitsch, Melanie Fediuk, A Papinutti, Geoffrey Seidel, Joseph Kahn, Tina Cohnert, Donna A. Messner, F. Ofner, J Presl, Márta Varga, Michael Weitzendorfer, K. Emmanuel, Alf-Dorian Binder, Marc Zimmermann, S Holawe, Emeka Nkenke, Christoph Grimm, M Kranawetter, Ashrarur Rahman Mitul, Nazmul Islam, Syed S. Karim, Niels Komen, S Putnis, S De Robles, Emily Ang, Herbert De Praetere, Tim Tollens, G Schols, C. Smets, Laura Haenen, Jorien Quintens, K Van Belle, Gabriëlle H. van Ramshorst, Piet Pattyn, Liesbeth Desender, Thomas Martens, Dirk Van de Putte, Philip Lerut, Aude Grimonprez, Marcus L.F. Janssen, G. De Smul, P. Wallaert, Jef Van den Eynde, Wouter Oosterlinck, Raf Van den Eynde, An Sermon, A. Boeckxstaens, Anne-Laure Cordonnier, Jeroen De Coster, Joris Jaekers, Constantinus Politis, Marc Miserez, Nicolas Duchateau, Charles de Gheldere, Nicolas Flamey, Piet Pattyn, A Christiano
Abstract
To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.