Volumetric Growth and Growth Curve Analysis of Residual Intracranial Meningioma
Conor S. Gillespie, George E. Richardson, Mohammad A. Mustafa, Basel A. Taweel, Ali Bakhsh, Siddhant Kumar, Sumirat M. Keshwara, Abdurrahman I. Islim, Shaveta Mehta, Christopher P. Millward, Andrew Brodbelt, Samantha J. Mills, Michael D. Jenkinson
Abstract
BACKGROUND: After meningioma surgery, approximately 1 in 3 patients will have residual tumor that requires ongoing imaging surveillance. The precise volumetric growth rates of these tumors are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To identify the volumetric growth rates of residual meningioma, growth trajectory, and factors associated with progression. METHODS: Patients with residual meningioma identified at a tertiary neurosurgery center between 2004 and 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Tumor volume was measured using manual segmentation, after surgery and at every follow-up MRI scan. Growth rates were ascertained using a linear mixed-effects model and nonlinear regression analysis of growth trajectories. Progression was defined according to the Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology (RANO) criteria (40% volume increase). RESULTS: There were 236 patients with residual meningioma. One hundred and thirty-two patients (56.0%) progressed according to the RANO criteria, with 86 patients being conservatively managed (65.2%) after progression. Thirteen patients (5.5%) developed clinical progression. Over a median follow-up of 5.3 years (interquartile range, 3.5-8.6 years), the absolute growth rate was 0.11 cm 3 per year and the relative growth rate 4.3% per year. Factors associated with residual meningioma progression in multivariable Cox regression analysis were skull base location (hazard ratio [HR] 1.60, 95% CI 1.02-2.50) and increasing Ki-67 index (HR 3.43, 95% CI 1.19-9.90). Most meningioma exhibited exponential and logistic growth patterns (median R 2 value 0.84, 95% CI 0.60-0.90). CONCLUSION: Absolute and relative growth rates of residual meningioma are low, but most meet the RANO criteria for progression. Location and Ki-67 index can be used to stratify adjuvant treatment and surveillance paradigms.