Applications of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to Respiratory Pathogens and Implications for Uptake in Policy: A State-of-the-Science Review
Lizhan Tang, William J. Rhoads, Antonia Eichelberg, Kerry A. Hamilton, Timothy R. Julian
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Respiratory tract infections are major contributors to the global disease burden. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) holds potential as a rapidly deployable framework to understand respiratory pathogen transmission and inform policy on infection control. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this paper was to evaluate, motivate, and inform further development of the use of QMRA as a rapid tool to understand the transmission of respiratory pathogens and improve the evidence base for infection control policies. METHODS: We conducted a literature review to identify peer-reviewed studies of complete QMRA frameworks on aerosol inhalation or contact transmission of respiratory pathogens. From each of the identified studies, we extracted and summarized information on the applied exposure model approaches, dose-response models, and parameter values, including risk characterization. Finally, we reviewed linkages between model outcomes and policy. RESULTS: ) making recommendations and suggestions for QMRA application in policy. CONCLUSIONS: We identified needs to further the development of QMRA frameworks for respiratory pathogens that prioritize appropriate aerosol exposure modeling approaches, consider trade-offs between model validity and complexity, and incorporate research that strengthens confidence in QMRA results. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12695.