Probabilistic Residential Load Forecasting Based on Micrometeorological Data and Customer Consumption Pattern
Lilin Cheng, Haixiang Zang, Yan Xu, Zhinong Wei, Guoqiang Sun
Abstract
A prior knowledge of residential load demand is critical for power system operations at the distribution level, such as economic dispatch, demand response and energy storage schedule. However, as residential customers perform more casual and active consumption behaviors, prediction of such highly volatile loads can be much harder. Owing to the development of sensor technology, micrometeorological data can be sampled with a high geographic resolution. Those data that represent the weather condition on the land surface show a strong relationship to the residential load evidently, whereas it remains unsolved on how to fully utilize those great number of datasets. This paper proposes a day-ahead probabilistic residential load forecasting method based on a novel deep learning model, named convolutional neural network with squeeze-and-excitation modules (CNN-SE), and micrometeorological data. The model can employ multi-channel input data with dissimilar weights, suitable for analyzing massive relevant input factors. A feature extraction method is adopted for customer consumption pattern based on sparse auto-encoder (SAE), which can help correct probabilistic forecasting results. A case study that covers 8 residential communities and 18 micrometeorological sites is conducted to validate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed hybrid method.