Enhanced PM2.5 estimation across China: An AOD-independent two-stage approach incorporating improved spatiotemporal heterogeneity representations

Abstract

In China, population growth and aging have partially negated the public health benefits of air pollution control measures, underscoring the ongoing need for precise PM 2.5 monitoring and mapping. Despite its prevalence, the satellite-derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) method for estimating PM 2.5 concentrations often encounters significant spatial data gaps. Additionally, current research still needs better representation of PM 2.5 spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Addressing these challenges, we developed a two-stage model employing the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. By incorporating improved spatiotemporal factors, we achieved high-precision and full-coverage daily 1-km PM 2.5 mappings across China for the year 2020 without utilizing AOD products. Specifically, Model 1 develops improved temporal encodings and a terrain classification factor (DC), while Model 2 constructs an enhanced spatial autocorrelation term (Ps) by integrating observed and estimated values. Notably, Model 2 excelled in 10-fold sample-based cross-validation, achieving a coefficient of determination of 0.948, a mean absolute error of 3.792 μg/m³, a root mean square error of 7.144 μg/m³, and a mean relative error of 14.171%. Feature importance and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analyses determined the relative importance of predictors in model training and outcome prediction, while correlation analysis identified strong links between improved temporal encodings, PM 2.5 concentrations, and significant meteorological factors. Two-way Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) further explored the interactions among these factors and their impact on PM 2.5 levels. Compared to traditional methods, improved temporal encodings align more closely with seasonal variations and synergize more effectively with meteorological factors. Besides, the structured nature of DC aids in model training, while the improved Ps more effectively captures PM 2.5 's spatial autocorrelation, outperforming traditional Ps. Overall, this study effectively represents spatiotemporal information, thereby boosting model accuracy and enabling seamless large-scale PM 2.5 estimations. It provides deep insights into variables and models, providing significant implications for future air pollution research. • A two-stage XGBoost model was developed for AOD-independent PM2.5 estimation in China. • Enhanced spatiotemporal heterogeneity representations were introduced. • Proposed factors effectively captured spatiotemporal characteristics. • Model showed robust performance, with predictions aligning closely with surface observations. • In-depth variable analysis and detailed model interpretation provided insights into model factors.

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