Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data
Zhihua Liu, Pierre Magal, Ousmane Seydi, Glenn F. Webb, Université de Bordeaux, IMB, UMR 5251, F-33400 Talence, France, CNRS, IMB, UMR 5251, F-33400 Talence, France, Département Tronc Commun, École Polytechnique de Thiès, Sénégal
Abstract
We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)ChinaSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakAsymptomaticCoronavirusEpidemic modelPandemicIdentification (biology)DemographyStatisticsVirologyGeographyMedicineMathematicsOutbreakBiologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)Internal medicineSociologyBotanyDiseaseArchaeologyPopulationCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsViral Infections and Outbreaks Research