Predicting the potential for zoonotic transmission and host associations for novel viruses
Pranav Pandit, Simon J. Anthony, Tracey Goldstein, Kevin J. Olival, Megan Doyle, Nicole R. Gardner, Brian H. Bird, Woutrina Smith, David J. Wolking, Kirsten Gilardi, Corina Monagin, T. Ross Kelly, Marcela Uhart, Jonathan H. Epstein, Catherine Machalaba, Melinda K. Rostal, Patrick Dawson, Emily Hagan, Ava Sullivan, Hongying Li, Aleksei A. Chmura, Alice Latinne, Christian E. Lange, Tammie O’Rourke, Sarah H. Olson, Lucy Keatts, A. Patricia Mendoza, Alberto Perez, Cátia Dejuste de Paula, Dawn Zimmerman, Marc Valitutto, Matthew LeBreton, David J. McIver, Ariful Islam, Veasna Duong, Mohamed Moctar Mouliom Mouiche, Zheng‐Li Shi, Prime Mulembakani, Charles Kumakamba, Mohamed R. Ali, Nigatu Kebede, Ubald Tamoufé, Samuel Bel‐Nono, Alpha Camara, Joko Pamungkas, Kalpy Julien Coulibaly, Ehab A. Abu‐Basha, Joseph Kamau, Soubanh Silithammavong, James Desmond, James Hughes, Enkhtuvshin Shiilegdamba, Ohnmar Aung, Dibesh Karmacharya, Julius Nziza, Daouda Ndiaye, Aiah A Gbakima, Zikankuba sajali, Supaporn Wacharapluesadee, Erika Alandia Robles, Benard Ssebide, Gerardo Suzán, Luís F. Aguirre, Monica Solorio, Tapan N. Dhole, Nguyễn Thị Nga, Peta L. Hitchens, Damien O. Joly, Karen Saylors, Amanda E. Fine, Suzan Murray, William B. Karesh, Peter Daszak, Jonna A. K. Mazet, Cátia Dejuste de Paula, Christine K. Johnson
Abstract
Host-virus associations have co-evolved under ecological and evolutionary selection pressures that shape cross-species transmission and spillover to humans. Observed virus-host associations provide relevant context for newly discovered wildlife viruses to assess knowledge gaps in host-range and estimate pathways for potential human infection. Using models to predict virus-host networks, we predicted the likelihood of humans as hosts for 513 newly discovered viruses detected by large-scale wildlife surveillance at high-risk animal-human interfaces in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Predictions indicated that novel coronaviruses are likely to infect a greater number of host species than viruses from other families. Our models further characterize novel viruses through prioritization scores and directly inform surveillance targets to identify host ranges for newly discovered viruses.