Wind Damage and Temperature Effect on Tree Mortality Caused by Ips typographus L.: Phase Transition Model
V. G. Soukhovolsky, Anton Kovalev, О. В. Тарасова, Roman Modlinger, Zdeňka Křenová, Pavel Mezei, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Jaroslav Rožnovský, Nataliya Korolyova, Andrej Majdák, Rastislav Jakuš
Abstract
The aim of this study was to develop methods for constructing a simple model describing tree mortality caused by Ips typographus L. using a minimum number of variables. We developed a model for areas spanning natural mountain forests in the Tatra National Park (Slovakia) and the Šumava National Park (Czech Republic), and in managed Czech forests located in four areas varying in environmental conditions. The model describes the time series of tree mortality dynamics caused by I.typographus using two submodels: a long-term dynamics submodel, and a short-term dynamics autoregressive distributed lag(ADL) model incorporating a two year delay and temperature variable averaged over the April-May period. The quality of fit for our models (R2 value) ranged from 0.87 to 0.91. The model was formulated to capture the average monthly temperature effect, a key weather factor. We found that for high-elevation stands located at least 1000 ma.s.l., forest damage was predominantly influenced by May temperatures. For lower-elevation managed forests with warmer climates, the weather effect was insignificant.