Insights from regional and short‐term biodiversity monitoring datasets are valuable: a reply to Daskalova <i>et al</i> . 2021
Sebastian Seibold, Torsten Hothorn, Martin M. Goßner, Nadja K. Simons, Nico Blüthgen, Jörg Müller, Didem Ambarlı, Christian Ammer, Jürgen Bauhus, Markus Fischer, Jan Christian Habel, Caterina Penone, Peter Schall, Ernst‐Detlef Schulze, Wolfgang W. Weisser
Abstract
Abstract Reports of major losses in insect biodiversity have stimulated an increasing interest in temporal population changes. Existing datasets are often limited to a small number of study sites, few points in time, a narrow range of land‐use intensities and only some taxonomic groups, or they lack standardised sampling. While new monitoring programs have been initiated, they still cover rather short time periods. Daskalova et al. 2021 (Insect Conservation and Diversity, 14, 1‐18) argue that temporal trends of insect populations derived from short time series are biased towards extreme trends, while their own analysis of an assembly of shorter‐ and longer‐term time series does not support an overall insect decline. With respect to the results of Seibold et al. 2019 (Nature, 574, 671–674) based on a 10‐year multi‐site time series, they claim that the analysis suffers from not accounting for temporal pseudoreplication. Here, we explain why the criticism of missing statistical rigour in the analysis of Seibold et al. (2019) is not warranted. Models that include ‘year’ as random effect, as suggested by Daskalova et al. (2021), fail to detect non‐linear trends and assume that consecutive years are independent samples which is questionable for insect time‐series data. We agree with Daskalova et al. (2021) that the assembly and analysis of larger datasets is urgently needed, but it will take time until such datasets are available. Thus, short‐term datasets are highly valuable, should be extended and analysed continually to provide a more detailed understanding of insect population changes under the influence of global change, and to trigger immediate conservation actions.