Prediction of dengue cases based on human mobility and seasonality—An example for the city of Jakarta
Peter Heidrich, Yashika Jayathunga, Wolfgang Böck, Thomas Götz
Abstract
In this article, we combine a multipatch SIRUV model with seasonal mosquito breeding rate in order to develop a seasonal SIR model via a time‐scale separation. The model is applied to commuting and dengue incident data in Jakarta to forecast dengue outbreaks. Qualitatively, the analysis is in good agreement with the actual outbreaks.
Topics & Concepts
Dengue feverSeasonalityOutbreakMathematicsEpidemic modelScale (ratio)StatisticsEconometricsGeographyDemographyVirologyCartographyBiologySociologyPopulationMosquito-borne diseases and controlCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesViral Infections and Vectors