Lipidomic Risk Score to Enhance Cardiovascular Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention
Jing Wu, Corey Giles, Aleksandar Dakic, Habtamu B. Beyene, Kevin Huynh, Tingting Wang, Thomas G. Meikle, Gavriel Olshansky, Agus Salim, Thy Duong, Gerald F. Watts, Joseph Hung, Jennie Hui, Gemma Cadby, John Beilby, John Blangero, Eric K. Moses, Jonathan E. Shaw, Dianna J. Magliano, Dantong Zhu, Jean Yang, Stuart M. Grieve, Andrew Wilson, Clara K Chow, Stephen T. Vernon, Michael P. Gray, Gemma A. Figtree, M. Carrington, Mike Inouye, Thomas H. Marwick, Peter J. Meikle
Abstract
Accurate risk stratification is vital for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, traditional tools such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) may underperform within the diverse intermediate-risk group, which includes individuals requiring distinct management strategies. This study aimed to develop a lipidomic-enhanced risk score (LRS), specifically targeting risk prediction and reclassification within the intermediate group, benchmarked against the FRS. The LRS was developed via a machine learning workflow using ridge regression on the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab; n = 10,339). It was externally validated with the Busselton Health Study (n = 4,492), and its predictive utility for coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS)–based outcomes was independently validated in the BioHEART cohort (n = 994). LRS significantly improved discrimination metrics for the intermediate-risk group in both AusDiab and Busselton Health Study cohorts (all P < 0.001), increasing the area under the curve for CVD events by 0.114 (95% CI: 0.1123-0.1157) and 0.077 (95% CI: 0.0755-0.0785), with a net reclassification improvement of 0.36 (95% CI: 0.21-0.51) and 0.33 (95% CI: 0.15-0.49), respectively. For CACS-based outcomes in BioHEART, LRS achieved a significant area under the curve improvement of 0.02 over the FRS (0.76 vs 0.74; P < 1.0 × 10-5). A simplified, clinically applicable version of LRS was also created that had comparable performance to the original LRS. LRS, augmenting the FRS, presents potential to improve intermediate-risk stratification and to predict atherosclerotic markers using a simple blood test, suitable for clinical application. This could facilitate the triage of individuals for noninvasive imaging such as CACS, fostering precision medicine in CVD prevention and management.