On Pilot Massive COVID-19 Testing by Antigen Tests in Europe. Case Study: Slovakia
Jaroslav Frnda, Marek Ďurica
Abstract
This paper provides a summary of mass COVID-19 testing of almost the entire population in Slovakia by antigen tests. We focused on the results delivered by two testing rounds and analyzed the benefits and weaknesses of such type of testing. We prepared mathematical models to critically examine the effectiveness of the testing, and we also estimated the number of potentially sick people that would become infected by those marked as positives by antigen tests. Our calculations have proven that antigen testing in hotspots can flatten the curve of daily newly reported cases significantly, but in regions with low-risk of COVID-19, the benefit of such testing is questionable. As for the regions with low infection rates, we could only estimate the proportion of true and false-positive cases because the national health authority had not validated the results by RT-PCR tests. Therefore, this work can serve as an introductory study on the first nationwide testing by antigen tests in Europe.