A systematic framework for assessing social vulnerability to flood for integrated flood risk management: A case study in Metro Manila, Philippines
Judy Marie T. Dulawan, Yoshiyuki Imamura, Toru Konishi, Hideo AMAGUCHI, Miho Ohara
Abstract
Assessing social vulnerability to floods (SVF) is a crucial component of integrated flood risk management, especially in flood-prone regions such as Metro Manila in the Philippines. This study presents a holistic framework to assess SVF, based on susceptibility, exposure, and resilience factors while recognizing its multi-dimensional, multi-attribute, and context-dependent nature. The assessment was applied to three cities of Metro Manila: Marikina, Parañaque, and Manila. Indicators were systematically identified using deductive and hierarchical approaches, and factor indices were derived using a combined Simple Additive Weighting and Analytic Hierarchy Process, while the SVF index was estimated using the vulnerability relationship of the factors. The results exhibit a strong positive correlation with historical social flood damages and robustness across weight and normalization variations, with Marikina being the most vulnerable, followed by Parañaque and Manila. The city-level vulnerability profiles highlight salient determinants such as high population exposure in Parañaque, a relatively high population of susceptible social groups in Marikina, and significant disparity in flood control projects among the cities. Scenario analyses underscore the efficacy of flood countermeasures that reduce exposure and increase resilience. This study offers valuable insights and practical guidance for developing effective disaster reduction plans and policies in the study areas and similar regions by identifying disparities in vulnerability and understanding local conditions and drivers.