Climate change impacts on cereal crops production in Pakistan
Faiza Ahsan, Abbas Ali Chandio, Fang Wang
Abstract
Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, cultivated area and the labour force on the production of cereal crops in Pakistan from the period 1971-2014. Design/methodology/approach The study used the Johansen cointegration test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality test to estimate the long-run cointegration and direction of the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Findings The outcomes of the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-term cointegrating relationship between the production of cereal crops, CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, cultivated area and the labour force. The results of the long-run coefficients of CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, cultivated area and labour force have a positive impact on cereal crops production. The long-run relationships reveal that a 1 per cent increase in CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, cultivated area and labour force will increase cereal crops production by 0.20, 0.11, 0.56 and 0.74 per cent, respectively. Moreover, the findings show that there is a bidirectional causality running from CO 2 emissions and cultivated area to cereal crops production. Moreover, there is a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to cereal crops production. Originality/value The present study also fills the literature gap for applying the ARDL procedure to examine this relevant issue for Pakistan.