A minimalistic approach for evapotranspiration estimation using the Prophet model
A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman, Takahiro Hosono, Özgür Kişi, Boateng Dennis, A. H. M. Rahmatullah Imon
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the potential of the recently introduced Prophet model for estimating reference evapotranspiration (ETo). A comparative study was conducted for benchmarking the model results with support vector regression (SVR) and temperature-based empirical models (Thornthwaite and Hargreaves) in southern Japan. The performance of the Prophet, SVR and temperature-based empirical models was evaluated by Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>). The results indicate that temperature-based Prophet and SVR models have greater accuracy than the empirical models. The Prophet model with sole input of relative humidity, sunshine hours or windspeed showed acceptable accuracy (NSE > 0.80; R<sup>2</sup> > 0.80), while SVR models with similar inputs showed greater errors. Accuracy improved with increasing number of input parameters, giving excellent performance (NSE > 0.95; R<sup>2</sup> > 0.95) with all input parameters. Hence, the Prophet model is a new promising approach for modelling ETo with limited input variables.