When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?
Augusto Cerqua, R. Di Stefano
Abstract
The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Europe was officially detected on 21st February 2020 in Northern Italy, even if recent evidence showed sporadic first cases in Europe since the end of 2019. In this study, we have tested the presence of coronavirus in Italy and, even more importantly, we have assessed whether the virus had already spread sooner than 21st February. We use a counterfactual approach and certified daily data on the number of deaths (deaths from any cause, not only related to coronavirus) at the municipality level. Our estimates confirm that coronavirus began spreading in Northern Italy in mid-January.
Topics & Concepts
CoronavirusCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Cluster (spacecraft)Geography2019-20 coronavirus outbreakCounterfactual thinkingNorthern italyPandemicVirologyDemographyMedicineOutbreakBusinessEuropean unionPsychologyInternational tradeSociologyInfectious disease (medical specialty)DiseaseProgramming languagePathologySocial psychologyComputer scienceCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research