Implications of subclinical tuberculosis for vaccine trial design and global effect
Gavin Churchyard, Rein M G J Houben, Katherine Fielding, Andrew L Fiore-Gartland, Hanif Esmail, Alison D Grant, Molebogeng X. Rangaka, Marcel A. Behr, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro, Emily B Wong, Mark Hatherill, Vidya Mave, Alemnew F. Dagnew, Alexander C Schmidt, Willem A Hanekom, Frank Cobelens, Richard G White
Abstract
Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death from an infectious agent globally. Infectious subclinical tuberculosis accounts for almost half of all tuberculosis cases in national tuberculosis prevalence surveys, and possibly contributes to transmission and might be associated with morbidity. Modelling studies suggest that new tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial health and economic effects, partly based on the assumptions made regarding subclinical tuberculosis. Evaluating the efficacy of prevention of disease tuberculosis vaccines intended for preventing both clinical and subclinical tuberculosis is a priority. Incorporation of subclinical tuberculosis as a composite endpoint in tuberculosis vaccine trials can help to reduce the sample size and duration of follow-up and to evaluate the efficacy of tuberculosis vaccines in preventing clinical and subclinical tuberculosis. Several design options with various benefits, limitations, and ethical considerations are possible in this regard, which would allow for the generation of the evidence needed to estimate the positive global effects of tuberculosis vaccine trials, in addition to informing policy and vaccination strategies.