Range Dynamics of Potato Cyst Nematode Globodera rostochiensis (Wollenweber, 1923) (Nematoda, Heteroderidae) under Conditions of Global Climate Change in Russia
Mikhail V. Pridannikov, S. V. Zinovieva, E. A. Khudyakova, Л. А. Лиманцева, F. A. Osipov, Н. Н. Дергунова, V. G. Petrosyan
Abstract
Abstract Globodera rostochiensis is one of the 100 most dangerous invasive species in Russia, causing significant damage to agriculture. In Russia, this nematode was first found in Kaliningrad oblast in 1949. Ensemble modeling (ESDM) was used in this study to predict the potential distribution of G. rostochiensis in Russia, and we found that there would be a tendency with changes in global climate and land use in the future to expand the range in two directions: from the south to the north and from the west to the east. The history of the distribution of the species on the territory of Russia and the current and potential ranges of the species from 2020 to 2100 with a step of 20 years in the implementation of various models and scenarios of climate change and land use are presented. Information on the native range, features of the biology, features of host plant damage and injuriousness of G. rostochiensis, methods of identification of pathotypes, invasion vectors, and control measures are shown. The predicted ranges of the species are important for the development of measures to minimize future invasion of G. rostochiensis and its negative consequences.